Bitcoin (BTC) may dip below its 200-week moving average price but will stay above $8,200, i of the industry's almost respected analysts has said.

In a serial of tweets on February. 10, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price forecasting tool, also predicts BTC/USD would merchandise "above $10,000" by May.

PlanB: stock-to-catamenia nevertheless on rail

This is around the date of Bitcoin's cake reward halving, which would boot off the "balderdash run" sending the cryptocurrency to $100,000 before December 2022.

PlanB released the predictions describing them as his "2 sats on Bitcoin toll." In a previous update in January 2022, he claimed BTC/USD would stay above its 200-week moving average (200WMA), which historically had e'er grown.

As Cointelegraph reported, that 200WMA growth charge per unit was 3% in December concluding yr, while now, it has increased to effectually 4%.

Bitcoin price stock-to-flow forecast as of January 2022

Bitcoin cost stock-to-flow forecast as of January 2022. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

At present, Bitcoin hovering at just beneath $10,000 means it is around 14% college than the $8,600 level that stock-to-flow dictates.

Bitcoin price stock-to-flow multiple as of Feb. 10

Bitcoin price stock-to-flow multiple as of Feb. 10. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter

This calendar month, traders continue to air concerns about a price correction to $6,000 or even lower. Others rebutted the idea, with veteran market participant Peter Brandt likewise arguing BTC/USD was not destined to driblet significantly.

BTC halving bear upon "can be lagged"

Stock-to-menstruation uses two indicators to chart Bitcoin'due south price trajectory: the number of Bitcoins already available versus the number of new Bitcoins added to apportionment.

Historically highly accurate, the model puts Bitcoin on par with gold in terms of its status as difficult coin with a supply that is virtually impossible to dispense, unlike fiat currency.

In the long term, PlanB expects BTC/USD to trade at an average of $100,000 betwixt 2022 and 2024. Subsequently that, nonetheless, fiat weakness may accomplish such an extent that Bitcoin appreciates to "a factor" of $100,000, at which indicate stock-to-flow would ironically go less useful.

In the meantime, PlanB disputed criticism virtually the bear on of May'due south block reward halving on toll. Responding to a fence which included analyst and researcher, Nic Carter, he argued that the relationship between stock-to-flow and price was "verifiable by anyone."

"The effect of a certain cause tin can be lagged. It is unscientific to merits that the halving effect must occur in i 24-hour interval," he explained.

"It is simple: S2F (and thus halving) and price are correlated. And this correlation is non spurious because cointegrated. Anyone can verify this."